Election Thoughts State by State

For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrats had much to celebrate. We won the largest Presidential election mandate in 20 years, we gained seats in the Senate even though we didn’t get to the filibuster-proof majority, and have won an additional 20 seats in the House, give or take a couple of close calls. Obama’s likely 364 electoral vote tally easily bested by prediction of 291, while my Senate seat pickup prediction of seven now looks optimistic, but my cautious prediction of 17 House seat pickups looks pretty close.

As for my two broader-themed predictions, it was a split decision. I had guessed that “moral values” would once again shock the world by emerging as the second-most important concern of voters going to the polls yesterday. It wasn’t even in the top four. On the other hand, I was laughed out of the room by numerous people when suggesting that Ralph Nader would overperform his 2004 numbers as a protest vote for alot of older Democrats who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a black man. But I was vindicated on that one as Nader exceeded 2004 margins in just about every state where he was on the ballot. As for the exit polls, they appeared to be even worse than those of 2004. Most of the close races showed huge Obama victories in the exit polls while even many red states looked to be breathtakingly close based on erroneous exit poll data.

State by state thoughts below the fold….

Alabama–In the Presidential race, I was kind of surprised this wasn’t worse. Alabama’s black population is below 30%, so I figured McCain’s margins would be epic, but he actually underperformed Bush four years ago. And winning Jefferson County (Birmingham) was a nice victory for Obama. I also can’t argue with the way the Congressional races turned out. I never would have thought Bobby Bright would be able to close this deal in his crimson red district, but he eked it out, while Parker Griffith hung onto a tough seat in AL-05 as well.

Alaska–Wow, what can you say about this place other than Palin, Stevens, Young and all their cohorts in crime at the ballot box deserve each other. While there’s a substantial absentee vote hanging out there that could yet unseat Ted Stevens, it seems pretty certain that Don Young will be back in Congress for two more years. Alaska is becoming another Florida, where any favorable poll needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Every poll showed Tony Knowles leading Lisa Murkowski in the 2004 Senate race yet Murkowski won by five points. Now there’s a very good chance a convicted felon may have overcome a 22-point poll deficit in eight days to keep a Senate seat that his own party’s leader said he was gonna boot from the caucus. What a surreal place!

Arizona–Close polls notwithstanding, McCain pulled ahead in the end as expected, yet still underperformed Bush’s 2004 numbers. The Congressional races went as predicted, with Democrats Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords winning easily and Republican Shadegg holding on in AZ-03, a race I never thought would go our way.

Arkansas–Looking at last night’s Presidential numbers, I can say without hesitation that I’m more disappointed in Arkansas than any other state. The polls showed a double-digit edge for McCain, but never would I have expected a 20-point McCain romp and double-digit victories for McCain in most 2004 Kerry counties. Hard to assume this outcome was about anything other than race, even in a state where the racial polarization in political affiliation had traditionally been much less significant than in the rest of the South. Perhaps the Southern Republican realignment will soon consume its last remaining holdout of Arkansas now that the Democrats had the audacity to elect a black President.

California–It’s easy to dwell on the disappointment of the Prop 8 hate measure’s narrow passage, but Obama’s 23-point victory in the state that brought us Ronald Reagan is nothing short of incredible, and appears to be running up the score of the popular vote for Obama as the state’s final numbers come in. Obama came within four points of winning Orange County. That’s amazing. Less impressive were the Congressional race outcomes. While McNerney held on, neither Nick Leibham or Debbie Cook prevailed in their longshot races even though Obama was overperforming at the top of the ticket. It’s still too close to call in the Brown-McClintock race, but McClintock narrowly leads. I was always suspicious of the prospect of a Democrat winning a district this mercilessly red now matter how perfect the circumstances.

Colorado–An epic blue tidal wave sweeps Colorado. This state’s transformation has been one of the most rapid I’ve ever seen, and bodes well for Ken Salazar’s ability to hold his Senate seat two years from now in what will likely be a tough, defensive climate. Who would have thought back in 2002 that Colorado would be this blue only six years later? Obama won comfortably, Mark Udall won the Senate seat by even more and voters in CO-04 finally expired culture war bomb thrower Marilyn Musgrave by an incredibly lopsided margin.

Connecticut–Another good night for Democrats in Connecticut with Obama trouncing McCain by more than 20 points in the Presidential race and helping Democrats score a complete blue sweep of New England Congressional districts with the unseating of Chris Shays in CT-04. I’m assuming a heavy black turnout in Bridgeport is what did Shays in.

Delaware–A huge Biden bounce turns Delaware as blue as Massachusetts and New York in this year’s Presidential race. Still interesting that the state’s southernmost rural county went McCain though. Also nice to have elected a Democratic Governor in Delaware to fill Biden’s Senate seat.

Florida–For the first time in living memory, pre-election polls in Florida actually played out as expected with Obama winning a small but significant two-point victory. The margin of difference came from Tampa-St. Petersburg and especially Orlando, a region that has trended dramatically blue in the last 10 years (Bob Dole won Orange County in 2006), and a fast-growing Hispanic population is credited for improved Democratic margins in the Orlando area. I held out some hope to see a few heavily black rural counties in northern Florida go blue this year, but apparently whites voted more Republican and offset higher black turnout as occurred in much of the South. I can’t say I was disappointed with Florida’s Congressional races either as I never expected either of the Diaz-Balart voters to be unseated in South Florida. On the bright side, once again in Orlando, Democrats Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas unseated Republican incumbents. Predictably, slimeball Democrat Tim Mahoney was unseated (good riddance!). My only surprise was that Mahoney still managed to get 40% of the vote.

Georgia–Early numbers made the Presidential race look like an epic McCain blowout, but Obama closed the gap to nearly five points as the late returns rolled in. That’s pretty impressive considering Bush won this state by 16 points four years ago. And the last I saw, Saxby Chambliss was just below 50% in the Senate race and thus looking at a runoff next month. I don’t give Jim Martin very good odds of toppling Chambliss in that setting, but it was nonetheless an impressive feat in a state Democrats had completely written off several years ago. Both of the Democratic House members rumored to be endangered (Jim Marshall and David Scott) held on easily, in Marshall’s case much easier than I had expected.

Hawaii–Hard to believe this was a battleground state four years ago. In 2008, it was Obama’s best state in the nation, giving him more than 70% of the vote. He had a certain homefield advantage here, but the margin was still impressive.

Idaho–As election nights go for Democrats in Idaho, this can only be described as an incredibly successful won. Obama inched his way up to 36% in the Presidential race, while noxious Republican dunderhead Bill Sali was narrowly unseated by Democrat Walt Minnick in ID-01, a race I doubted would turn. Now Minnick is the proud owner of the most Republican Congressional district in the country represented by a Democrat.

Illinois–Naturally, Obama kicked butt in his home state and won by about 25 points, but didn’t have the coattails to drag along Dan Seals in IL-10 as I predicted (in contrast to Minnick, I expect IL-10 is now the bluest district in the nation represented by a Republican). On the bright side, Debbie Halvorson easily picked up the IL-11 open seat for the Dems and Dem Bill Foster easily held on in IL-14, Denny Hastert’s old district.

Indiana–I always thought Obama was wise to put forth such an effort in Indiana for the benefit of future Democrats, but never entertained the idea that he would win the state outright until I started seeing those early returns roll in last night, with McCain barely managing a lead before even the first returns from Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Lake County rolled in. Now, Indiana is a blue state, swinging an incredible 22 points towards Democrats since the last Presidential election. In the House, I never expected Mark Souder to be unseated in his hard-red district, but was pleased to see Baron Hill finally driving a stake through the heart of Mike Sodrel in IN-09 with his double-digit landslide.

Iowa–Another deeply blue year for my current state of residence with a solid nine-point Obama victory that cut well into the Norman Rockwell farm country of western Iowa. Tom Harkin had his first true landslide in the Senate race, laying waste to a clueless fourth-rate GOP challenger and winning 94 of 99 Iowa counties. I was originally bullish about Becky Greenwald in IA-04, but could feel the oxygen getting sucked out of her campaign in the closing weeks as Latham badly outspent her. I was nonetheless shocked at the 21-point thumping Greenwald got, underperforming Latham’s invisible Democratic challenger Shelden Spencer in 2006. Iowa’s other House Democrats all won double digit victories, with Leonard Boswell once again underperforming everybody else on the ballot. The comically awful western Iowa Republican Steve King prevailed for a fourth term as predicted.

Kansas–Obama did narrow traditional Republican margins in Kansas a bit, but still lost by 15 points. I predicted Nancy Boyda would have a hard time hanging on in KS-02 and was unfortunately proven correct as she lost by a significant five points. Kansas continues to be a very long-term project.

Kentucky–Louisville almost by itself saved Obama from badly underperforming Kerry in Kentucky. I was skeptical that Obama could prevail in east Kentucky, even in counties like Floyd and Knott where Kerry got more than 60% of the vote, and was unfortunately proven correct. One wonders if McCain’s ninth-inning cheap shot about coal further suppressed Obama’s numbers in Appalachain coal country. Nonetheless, it was heartening to see four east Kentucky counties go Obama, along with Fayette County (Lexington) and a couple unexpected rural counties across the Ohio River from Indiana. The Senate race played out as expected with McConnell prevailing by a small but significant margin, while Yarmuth predictably hung on in KY-03 and Brett Guthrie predictably kept the KY-02 open seat in GOP hands.

Louisiana–Unlike Arkansas, I expected a 20-point McCain blowout in Louisiana. I was really starting to get worried about Mary Landrieu by about 10 p.m. last night as she clung to a few thousand vote lead, but she didn’t better than expected in Jefferson County (suburban New Orleans) and went on to win convincingly. In the House, I thought those polls showing huge leads for Don Cazayoux in LA-06 seemed to good to be true given that he would assuredly be hemorrhaging black support to Independent candidate Jackson. Cazayoux lost by eight points, and of course Jackson was the difference. The open seat for LA-04 won’t be settled until a December runoff, but I think it’s probably an uphill fight for Democrat Paul Carmouche.

Maine–Polarized double-digit blowouts for Obama in the Presidential race and Republican Senator Susan Collins, both predicted even though Collins’ margin was even larger than expected. Not much to report here.

Maryland–This is a demographically perfect state for Obama, and he delivered with a 23-point victory. The complicated MD-01 open seat race is still officially undecided, but Democrat Frank Kratovil holds a 1,000-vote lead in this uber-Republican district where he most certainly didn’t get much in the way of coattails from Obama.

Massachusetts–Not much to see here. Obama won by about 25 points and all the state’s all Democratic Congressional delegation held on once again.

Michigan–Hard to imagine just a month ago that Michigan was deemed likely to be one of the nation’s biggest Presidential battlegrounds. It’s definitely clear why McCain chose to pull out of the state, having lost it to Obama in a geographically widespread 16-point landslide, particularly impressive given the generations-old racial polarization in metropolitan Detroit. And even though the GOP drew up a Congressional map in 2001 that seemed like a nearly impenetrable firewall, the Democrats managed to crack it by unseating two Republican incumbents in MI-07 and MI-09, the latter of which ended up being a landslide defeat for long-time suburban Detroit incumbent Joe Knollenberg.

Minnesota–My home state certainly delivered for Obama last night, but nonetheless disappointed on several fronts. I was struck that Obama’s growth in outstate Minnesota was much less than the growth seen in its neighboring states. Most disappointing is that the asshats of the Minnesota Independence Party carried on their now decadelong tradition of inadvertantly electing Republicans. This year, it’s very likely that the IP cost the Democrats no fewer than three races. Al Franken is only 500 votes behind Norm Coleman in the fiercely contested battleground Senate race and could still conceivably emerge victorious in a recount, but it’s odds-against….and it’s abundantly clear that Independent Dean Barkley got more would-be Franken votes than Coleman. There’s no guarantee that Ashwin Madia would have won the MN-03 open seat if not for David Dillon, but the race would certainly have been closer. And the most disappointing result of the night was the re-election of one of Congress’ worst members, the execrable Michelle Bachmann in MN-06, made possible by a crackpot IP candidate who scored 10% of the vote that probably would have gone to Democrat El Tinklenberg. All things considered, it was a disappointing night in Minnesota.

Mississippi–Despite a robust African-American turnout, the needle didn’t move much in Democrats’ direction in racially polarized Mississippi. Obama bested Kerry’s performance by about five points, but Senate candidate Ronnie Musgrove was still handed a 10-point defeat at the hands of quasi-incumbent Republican Roger Wicker. I didn’t figure Wicker would win this race, but I figured it would be closer than this. On the bright side, Travis Childers won another double-digit victory in the very conservative MS-o1 race.

Missouri–The only thing worth celebrating in Missouri was a landslide election of a new Democratic Governor. It appears as though John McCain will prevail by about 6,000 votes in the Presidential race, verifying that Missouri is now more Republican than the country (who would have though 20 years ago that Indiana would be a blue state and Missouri a red state?). As I expected, both of the longshot House races went to the Republicans, narrowly in the case of Blaine Luetkemeyer for the MO-09 open seat, but in a crushing landslide in M0-06.

Montana–I’m fairly impressed that Obama managed to make Montana a three-point race. Polls early and late in the election cycle suggested it was possible, but only a month ago it looked like another GOP landslide in the works.

Nebraska–While Obama narrowed the gap by a good 10 points in the Presidential race, McCain still prevailed by a substantial 16-point margin and brought Republican Congressional candidates along for the ride. Scott Kleeb, one of the Democrats’ most impressive candidates, fell woefully short to Mike Johanns in the open Senate race while Lee Terry held on in his Omaha-based House district. Nebraska stays red.

Nevada–Pretty much everybody expected Obama would win Nevada, but could anybody have foreseen Nevada would end up bluer than Minnesota or Iowa? If this trend continues, it spells huge trouble for Republicans in a state that was a nearly uncontested GOP stronghold only 20 years ago. Republican Dean Heller hung on as predicted in his upstate NV-02 race, but Democrat Dina Titus took out incumbent GOPer John Porter in the suburban Vegas district.

New Hampshire–The blue tidal wave that crashed upon New Hampshire in 2006 was no fluke, with Obama scoring a huge double-digit win, taking along Democratic Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen and endangered incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter along for the ride with their own impressive victories.

New Jersey–Not much surprising in the Presidential and Senate races, with Obama and Lautenberg winning by fairly predictable double-digit margins. In the two battleground open seats in the House, it was a split decision, with Democrat John Adler narrowly taking the Republican-held NJ-03, but Republican Leonard Lance trouncing his seemingly strong Democratic challenger in the NJ-07 race.

New Mexico–Another state where Republicans were positively overwhelmed by a dramatic Democratic tide. Four years after George Bush eked out a win here, Barack Obama went on to win by 15 points this year. And if that wasn’t enough, the state’s Congressional delegation went from 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats to 5 Democrats and zero Republicans overnight, with double-digit Democratic victories in all three contested races. Of all 50 states, the Dems probably had their best night last evening in New Mexico.

New York–As expected, a 25-point Barack Obama blowout, but the real story is the near-invisibility of the Republican Party in virtually every corner of New York. Republicans started out last evening with six members of Congressional delegation that has now been reduced to three, with two open seats in Staten Island and Syracuse swinging to the Democrat and Eric Massa toppling an incumbent Republican in the state’s reddest district. The Dems did fail to get the red-leaning NY-26 open seat after a primary that turned into a comedy of errors and freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri had a scare in his race, ekeing out a 51-49 victory in a race not expected to be close.

North Carolina–A huge Democratic year in a state that seemed to be trending hopelessly Republican just four years ago, with a dramatic defeat for incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole, an apparent narrow victory for Obama in the Presidential race, and a Democratic gubernatorial victory that was no sure thing heading into election day. And the icing on the cake was Larry Kissell’s double-digit thumping of Robin Hayes in NC-08, a race the Dems should have gotten in 2006.

North Dakota–As I said at the outset, the exit poll data was horrendous again this year. At the time of poll closing, McCain appeared poised for a 15-point blowout in North Dakota while South Dakota looked to be breathtakingly close. In the end, both states had nearly identical margins with nine-point victories for McCain. I never really expected Obama to win here, but shrinking GOP margins from 27 points to 9 is impressive nonetheless, as well as Democratic victories in Fargo and Grand Forks, which even Bill Clinton failed to pull off. Now my top priority is making sure one of my favorite Senators, Byron Dorgan, isn’t swept out of office in 2010 against potential GOP challenger John Hoeven, who was just re-elected to the Governor’s office in one of the evening’s most lopsided blowouts.

Ohio–I was heartened to see Ohio called as early as it was for Obama and early exit poll data showing a huge win, but became disappointed when I saw the returns roll in and saw that Obama’s margins were entirely the product of running up the score in the northern part of the state, yet did not move the needle much if at all in the state’s Appalachian region as I had hoped. Hard to imagine that a place as economically decimated as Steubenville, OH, could continue to lurch rightward (officially going from blue to red this year). Nonetheless, it was nice to see Obama winning Hamilton County (Cincinnati), a feat even Bill Clinton never pulled off. The Cincinnati-based OH-01 also went to a Democrat, as did the OH-16 open seat in the Canton area. Surprisingly, it looks as though Mary Jo Kilroy fell short once again in the Columbus-based OH-15. Gotta be hard for her to lose two consecutive races she was expected to win. Nonetheless, a decent night for Dems in Ohio, but just like 2006, I still felt the state could have and should have done better.

Oklahoma–My prediction was that Oklahoma would be McCain’s best state. I thought its competition would be Idaho and Utah, but it was actually Wyoming that ended up being this year’s reddest state. Still, a nearly 2-1 McCain blowout in this increasingly hopeless state which also handed one of America’s worst Senators, Jim Inhofe, a near 20-point re-election victory.

Oregon–The annoying vote-by-mail tradition of Oregon is once again lagging the process of knowing the results. Obama won in a landslide as predicted, but it’s still soon to call the hard-fought Senate race. Early reports suggested that the Portland vote was entirely in, which led me to believe incumbent Gordon Smith would hang on, but now it seems as though most of the remaining vote is in Portland, which means Democrat Jeff Merkley is probably poised for a come-from-behind victory. The Dems easily held onto the OR-05 open House seat as well.

Pennsylvania–A very strong Democratic year in Pennsylvania for the second election in a row with Obama pulling off the double-digit victory that was expected and the Dems winning all the battleground House races. John Murtha won comfortably despite his megagaffe, Paul Kanjorski surprisingly held on, along with Jason Altmire and Chris Carney. We even picked up a GOP-held seat in PA-03, while only narrowly losing PA-06, a blue district without a top-tier challenger to Jim Gerlach which is easily one of this year’s biggest recruiting failures for Dems. The only other disappointment was continuing to watch southwestern Pennsylvania slip away from Democrats, with McCain winning over the last remaining blue counties encircling Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Obama managed to win back Cambria County (Johnstown) which went Bush in 2004.

Rhode Island–Not much to report here. Landslide victories for Obama and every other Democrat on the ballot.

South Carolina–The high black turnout was successful in cutting Bush’s 2004 margin in half to nine points, but even in this environment, Lindsey Graham won by nearly 20 points against a weak opponent and two Democratic House candidates failed to topple weak Republican incumbents. South Carolina continues to be very inhospitable terrain for Dems.

South Dakota–Despite very bullish early exit poll numbers, it was the pre-election polls that were right about South Dakota as McCain won by nine points. Nonetheless, some very impressive inroads for Obama in eastern South Dakota farm counties, as well as wins in population centers Brown County (Aberdeen) and Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls, which I certainly didn’t see coming). Tim Johnson scored his first non-nailbiter Senate victory, winning by a 25-point landslide and sweeping all but four South Dakota’s 66 counties. The double-digit defeat of South Dakota’s overreaching abortion ban was also an unexpected surprise.

Tennessee–A very ugly year in a state where ugly years are becoming a regular occurrence for Democrats. Obama’s margin was no better or worse than Kerry’s four years earlier, but only because of a very strong Obama performance in Memphis and Nashville. Elsewhere, all but one of the Yellow Dog Democrat counties of West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee went red and in most cases dramatically red. Put this state in with Oklahoma as states that have become virtual lost causes for Democrats for the foreseeable future.

Texas–Last night’s returns for both McCain and Cornyn give a more balanced assessment of where Democrats stand in the state since native son Bush wasn’t on the ballot. Both Obama and Noriega narrowed the margins to low double-digits, with dramatic improvement for Dems in heavily Hispanic counties and outright Obama victories in Dallas and Harris Counties (I would have never predicted the latter would turn this quickly). In Congressional races, Dems fell far short in the longshot TX-07 and TX-10 races, and we unfortunately lost Nick Lampson, who I was pulling for because he seems like a good man…and a good Congressman. And Chet Edwards’ soft seven-point margin against a fourth-rate opponent is a wake-up call that he’s never safe in that crimson red district.

Utah–Modest growth for Obama in America’s reddest state, yet still a near 30-point deficit. It was nice to see Obama was able to do what neither Gore or Kerry was able to do and turn two Utah counties blue.

Vermont–Second only to Hawaii for Obama’s margins, it’s hard to believe that Vermont was the most Republican state in America up until 1992.

Virginia–A great year for Democrats in one of our most unfriendly states in the last half century, with Obama winning comfortably, a landslide victory in an open Senate race, and at least two Congressional seat pickups, one in traditionally conservative Virginia Beach and one in northern Virginia. Most surprising is the still-undecided VA-05 race where Virgil Goode is currently leading by the slimmest of margins. Hopefully this Democratic momentum continues.

Washington–A huge Obama victory is thus far the only headline out of Washington this year. The vote-by-mail tradition will delay the call of another jarlid-tight House race between Burner and Reichert in WA-08, but if the vote count follows the same pattern as it did two years ago, Reichert is probably favored to hang on.

West Virginia–Another incredibly disappointing election for a state that used to be one of our most reliable. Again, the GOP’s demagoguery about coal was probably worth at least a couple of points to McCain in this state, but there was clearly more working against Obama here. As coal continues to become more controversial, it’s hard to see how this state remains in the Democratic fold at any level for much longer. The only bright spot was the state’s northeastern most county, bordering Northern Virginia, turning blue this year, suggesting that a marginal demographic shift in the panhandle could help decide a close race or two to the Democrats’ favor.

Wisconsin–I was shocked to look at the overwhelmingly blue Wisconsin county map last night, where Obama had taken more than 75% of Wisconsin’s counties and overperformed both Minnesota and Iowa. I’m not necessarily sure why Wisconsin is such friendly terrain for Obama, both in the primary and general election, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth and hope for continued Democratic strength in future election cycles. The only contested House race in WI-08 also went the Democrats’ way.

Wyoming–I expected better of Wyoming than last night. Polls suggested the race between Obama and McCain was only half as lopsided as the two most recent elections where native son Cheney was on the ballot, but Wyoming still emerged as McCain’s only 2-1 victory of the night while both Senate races were won in 3-1 Republican landslides and House candidate Gary Trauner, tied in the polls until last week, lost by 10 points. Looks like the GOP will continue to have one stronghold in the Rocky Mountain West.

All said, hard to imagine a much better night for Democrats than last, even though we came up short in a few places where we shouldn’t. And now, the Dems own the levers of political leadership. Getting them was the easy part. Governing well enough to keep them in the current state of financial and global crisis will definitely be the hard part.